MLS picks today for September 5, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Full MLS Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 PM ET | Colorado Rapids @ Columbus Crew SC | Columbus Crew SC (53%) | Over 2.5 (54%) | Colorado Rapids +220 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Houston Dynamo @ Charlotte FC | Charlotte FC (60%) | Over 2.5 (55%) | Houston Dynamo +210 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Chicago Fire @ Toronto FC | Chicago Fire (56%) | Over 3 (50%) | Toronto FC +202 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | San Diego FC @ Orlando City SC | San Diego FC (52%) MODEL FLIP | Over 3.5 (51%) | San Diego FC +215 (BetRivers) |
| 7:30 PM ET | D.C. United @ FC Cincinnati | FC Cincinnati (70%) | Under 3.5 (50%) | D.C. United +380 (FanDuel) |
| 7:30 PM ET | CF Montreal @ Philadelphia Union | Philadelphia Union (74%) | Under 3.5 (56%) | CF Montreal +550 (FanDuel) |
| 8:30 PM ET | San Jose Earthquakes @ Austin FC | San Jose Earthquakes (51%) MODEL FLIP | Over 3 (51%) | San Jose Earthquakes +217 (BetUS) |
| 8:30 PM ET | New York Red Bulls @ Seattle Sounders FC | Seattle Sounders FC (66%) | Under 3.5 (59%) | New York Red Bulls +280 (BetRivers) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Sporting Kansas City @ FC Dallas | FC Dallas (84%) | Under 3.5 (55%) | Sporting Kansas City +550 (BetUS) |
| 9:30 PM ET | Los Angeles FC @ Real Salt Lake | Los Angeles FC (51%) | Under 3 (51%) | Real Salt Lake +182 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 9:30 PM ET | New England Revolution @ LA Galaxy | New England Revolution (54%) MODEL FLIP | Under 3 (53%) FLIP | LA Galaxy +156 (LowVig.ag) |
| 10:30 PM ET | Minnesota United FC @ Portland Timbers | Portland Timbers (59%) | Over 3 (51%) | Minnesota United FC +200 (BetRivers) |
| 10:30 PM ET | St. Louis City SC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (81%) | Under 3.5 (61%) | St. Louis City SC +500 (FanDuel) |
Over / Under Board
- Under 3.5 — St. Louis City SC @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC: our number is 2.82, so we make it 61% to land under.
- Under 3.5 — New York Red Bulls @ Seattle Sounders FC: our number is 2.85, so we make it 59% to land under.
- Under 3.5 — CF Montreal @ Philadelphia Union: our number is 3.2, so we make it 56% to land under.
- Over 2.5 — Houston Dynamo @ Charlotte FC: our number is 2.72, so we make it 55% to land over.
- Under 3.5 — Sporting Kansas City @ FC Dallas: our number is 3.27, so we make it 55% to land under.
- Over 2.5 — Colorado Rapids @ Columbus Crew SC: our number is 2.75, so we make it 54% to land over.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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