NFL picks today for September 20, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. We flag 1 game with real line value today.
Table of Contents
The board’s paying Colts +250 when the number says they’re live closer to a coin flip plus, and that gap is too juicy to pass on. I’m not saying they win outright, I’m saying that price is a gift and I’m tailing it.
Value Board
Colts are getting a big number here as road underdogs, with the market pricing them at roughly 29% to win outright while the +250 line at MyBookie pays out as if their odds were a bit lower than that — that gap is where the value edge shows up, about +3.5% versus the listed price. Worth stressing this isn’t a call that Indianapolis wins or even covers any particular way, just that the price offered looks slightly better than the no-vig fair number suggests it should be. As always with plus-money underdog prices in divisional-caliber road spots, line shopping matters, so it’s worth checking whether other books offer better than +250 on the same side.
Full NFL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:20 PM ET | Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs VALUE | Kansas City Chiefs (70%) | Under 46.5 (51%) | Indianapolis Colts +250 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | Green Bay Packers (62%) | Over 44 (51%) | New York Jets +160 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans | Houston Texans (58%) | Under 45.5 (50%) | Cincinnati Bengals +135 (Bovada) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | Philadelphia Eagles (74%) | Over 39.5 (50%) | Tennessee Titans +280 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens (78%) | Over 45.5 (50%) | Baltimore Ravens -375 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (78%) | Under 41.5 (50%) | Cleveland Browns +340 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots | New England Patriots (68%) | Over 41.5 (50%) | Pittsburgh Steelers +205 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears (66%) | Over 47 (50%) | Minnesota Vikings +185 (LowVig.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers (58%) | Over 43.5 (50%) | Atlanta Falcons +130 (DraftKings) |
| 4:05 PM ET | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos (58%) | Over 45.5 (50%) | Jacksonville Jaguars +134 (BetUS) |
| 4:05 PM ET | Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers (72%) | Over 43.5 (50%) | Las Vegas Raiders +255 (BetUS) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys (65%) | Over 51 (50%) | Washington Commanders +180 (DraftKings) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks (65%) | Over 41 (50%) | Seattle Seahawks -195 (Bovada) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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