MLB Picks Today (September 24, 2026): 12 Games, Value Leans & Best Lines

MLB picks today for September 24, 2026: all 12 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.

BetMan’s Gut Pick

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners

The market and the fair number agree Seattle is the class of this matchup, and I’ll take the home side with the steadier profile over chasing a plus-money dog. Laying -200 isn’t cute, but it’s the game I feel best about on the board today.

Gut, not gospel — the value board is the math.

Full MLB Slate

Over / Under Board

• Under 11 — Houston Astros @ Athletics: our number is 8.72, so we make it 61% to land under — against the posted total.
• Under 7.5 — San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers: our number is 6.25, so we make it 57% to land under.
• Over 7 — Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs: our number is 7.99, so we make it 55% to land over — against the posted total.
• Under 7 — Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox: our number is 6.63, so we make it 53% to land under.
• Under 10 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies: our number is 9.64, so we make it 52% to land under.
• Under 8 — New York Mets @ Texas Rangers: our number is 7.48, so we make it 52% to land under — against the posted total.

YRFI / NRFI Leans

BetMan’s First-Inning Call

NRFI — Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

Cam Schlittler’s 1.94 ERA is the best number on the board, and the model backs it at 64%, its strongest read of the day. Ian Seymour’s 4.38 ERA is the only thing that could crack this open, but I’m riding the ace and the model on this one.

One call with a little feel behind it — the full board below is the math.

• NRFI St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — 58% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Kyle Leahy (3.65 ERA) vs Paul Skenes (3.91 ERA))
• YRFI Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals — 50% chance of a first-inning run (David Sandlin (6.29 ERA) vs Randy Dobnak (3.08 ERA))
• NRFI Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs — 52% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Tyler Phillips (3.45 ERA) vs Matthew Boyd (4.06 ERA))
• YRFI New York Mets @ Texas Rangers — 54% chance of a first-inning run (Zac Thornton (3.40 ERA) vs Kumar Rocker (4.47 ERA))
• YRFI Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies — 57% chance of a first-inning run (Eduardo Rodriguez (2.89 ERA) vs Tanner Gordon (6.01 ERA))
• YRFI Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — 61% chance of a first-inning run (Bryse Wilson (3.67 ERA) vs Andrew Painter (5.59 ERA))
• NRFI Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox — 54% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Daniel Espino (4.73 ERA) vs Ranger Suarez (3.27 ERA))
• NRFI Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — 70% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Ian Seymour (4.38 ERA) vs Cam Schlittler (1.94 ERA))
• YRFI Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves — 59% chance of a first-inning run (Brady Singer (5.67 ERA) vs Tyler Mahle (3.81 ERA))
• YRFI Houston Astros @ Athletics — 61% chance of a first-inning run (Peter Lambert (3.70 ERA) vs Mason Barnett (7.16 ERA))
• YRFI Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners — 56% chance of a first-inning run (Grayson Rodriguez (5.96 ERA) vs Bryan Woo (3.92 ERA))
• NRFI San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers — 68% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Nick Pivetta (3.30 ERA) vs Tyler Glasnow (3.46 ERA))

New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.

How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.