MLS picks today for September 26, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Full MLS Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 PM ET | New York City FC @ Atlanta United FC | New York City FC (51%) MODEL FLIP | Under 3 (54%) | New York City FC +205 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Chicago Fire @ Charlotte FC | Charlotte FC (60%) | Under 3.5 (54%) | Chicago Fire +215 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | FC Cincinnati @ CF Montreal | FC Cincinnati (53%) | Over 3.5 (55%) FLIP | CF Montreal +168 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | St. Louis City SC @ New York Red Bulls | St. Louis City SC (62%) | Under 3.5 (55%) | St. Louis City SC -112 (BetMGM) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Orlando City SC @ Philadelphia Union | Philadelphia Union (76%) | Under 4 (53%) | Orlando City SC +500 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 8:30 PM ET | San Diego FC @ Austin FC | Austin FC (51%) | Over 3 (52%) FLIP | Austin FC +150 (BetUS) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Minnesota United FC @ Seattle Sounders FC | Seattle Sounders FC (60%) | Under 3 (50%) FLIP | Minnesota United FC +200 (BetRivers) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Los Angeles FC @ FC Dallas | FC Dallas (58%) | Over 3 (56%) FLIP | FC Dallas +132 (BetRivers) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Sporting Kansas City @ Houston Dynamo | Houston Dynamo (81%) | Over 3 (51%) FLIP | Sporting Kansas City +460 (BetRivers) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Toronto FC @ Nashville SC | Nashville SC (85%) | Over 3 (54%) | Toronto FC +550 (FanDuel) |
| 9:30 PM ET | New England Revolution @ Real Salt Lake | New England Revolution (53%) MODEL FLIP | Over 3 (52%) | New England Revolution +165 (FanDuel) |
| 10:30 PM ET | Portland Timbers @ San Jose Earthquakes | San Jose Earthquakes (65%) | Under 3.5 (51%) | Portland Timbers +260 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 10:30 PM ET | Colorado Rapids @ LA Galaxy | LA Galaxy (54%) | Under 3 (52%) FLIP | Colorado Rapids +200 (FanDuel) |
Over / Under Board
- Over 3 — Los Angeles FC @ FC Dallas: our number is 3.47, so we make it 56% to land over — against the posted total.
- Under 3.5 — St. Louis City SC @ New York Red Bulls: our number is 3.19, so we make it 55% to land under.
- Over 3.5 — FC Cincinnati @ CF Montreal: our number is 3.97, so we make it 55% to land over — against the posted total.
- Under 3.5 — Chicago Fire @ Charlotte FC: our number is 3.33, so we make it 54% to land under.
- Under 3 — New York City FC @ Atlanta United FC: our number is 2.87, so we make it 54% to land under.
- Over 3 — Toronto FC @ Nashville SC: our number is 3.17, so we make it 54% to land over.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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