NFL picks today for October 4, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. We flag 1 game with real line value today.
Table of Contents
The number says Dolphins are getting way more plus-money than they deserve, and that’s the kind of price discrepancy worth tailing. I’m not saying they win straight up, I’m saying this is the one dart worth throwing today.
Value Board
This line is a longshot price, so the lean isn’t a forecast that Miami wins — it’s a view that +464 pays out more than the no-vig math says it should, with the fair number landing near 19% versus what the price implies. Road underdogs traveling to face a tougher home team often get overpriced in exactly this way, so a gap like this can show up even without any shift in who’s actually favored to win. Treat it as a pricing edge worth shopping and sizing small, not a prediction that Miami covers or wins outright.
Full NFL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM ET | Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings VALUE | Minnesota Vikings (81%) | Under 38.5 (50%) | Miami Dolphins +464 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 9:30 AM ET | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | Indianapolis Colts (67%) | Over 46.5 (50%) | Indianapolis Colts -215 (BetRivers) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals (57%) | Over 51.5 (50%) | Jacksonville Jaguars +129 (BetUS) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams (63%) | Over 42.5 (51%) | Philadelphia Eagles +170 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills (74%) | Over 49.5 (50%) | New England Patriots +275 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers (60%) | Over 39 (50%) | Green Bay Packers -156 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears (63%) | Over 43 (50%) | Chicago Bears -178 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | Arizona Cardinals (56%) | Over 44.5 (50%) | New York Giants +122 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | Houston Texans (58%) | Over 48.5 (50%) | Dallas Cowboys +135 (Bovada) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks (74%) | Over 42.5 (50%) | Los Angeles Chargers +295 (FanDuel) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers (57%) | Over 48 (50%) | Denver Broncos +136 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs (66%) | Under 48 (50%) | Las Vegas Raiders +192 (LowVig.ag) |
| 8:20 PM ET | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions (64%) | Over 51 (50%) | Detroit Lions -185 (DraftKings) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
21+. Please play responsibly. If it stops being fun: 1-800-GAMBLER. Get this board by email every morning — the BetSlate Briefing.