NFL picks today for October 11, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Lions are the best team on this slate by a mile and it shows in that 68 percent number. Price isn’t a bargain but this is the one I’d happily lay chalk on and sleep fine.
Full NFL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 AM ET | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars (77%) | Over 41.5 (51%) | Philadelphia Eagles +340 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | New England Patriots (63%) | Over 45 (50%) | Las Vegas Raiders +165 (LowVig.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals (76%) | Over 43.5 (51%) | Miami Dolphins +308 (BetUS) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers (58%) | Over 43.5 (50%) | Pittsburgh Steelers -146 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders (63%) | Over 41.5 (50%) | New York Giants +165 (LowVig.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears (53%) | Under 47 (50%) | Green Bay Packers +109 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | New York Jets (56%) | Over 39.5 (50%) | Cleveland Browns +120 (BetUS) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans (75%) | Over 38 (50%) | Tennessee Titans +295 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings (55%) | Over 41.5 (50%) | Minnesota Vikings -130 (DraftKings) |
| 4:05 PM ET | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos (63%) | Over 42 (50%) | Los Angeles Chargers +172 (FanDuel) |
| 4:25 PM ET | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks (61%) | Over 46.5 (50%) | San Francisco 49ers +153 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions (68%) | Under 54.5 (50%) | Detroit Lions -235 (BetRivers) |
| 8:20 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons (61%) | Over 43.5 (50%) | Baltimore Ravens +160 (MyBookie.ag) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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