NFL picks today for September 13, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Dolphins are the kind of team I don’t trust on the road right now, and Vegas at home just feels like the sturdier side tonight. No number-crunching magic here, just a gut lean toward the Raiders getting it done.
Full NFL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00 PM ET | Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers (72%) | Over 41 (50%) | Atlanta Falcons +255 (BetUS) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills (52%) | Over 44.5 (50%) | Buffalo Bills -112 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Tennessee Titans (52%) | Over 38.5 (50%) | Tennessee Titans -111 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars (79%) | Over 40 (50%) | Cleveland Browns +360 (MyBookie.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens (60%) | Over 48 (50%) | Indianapolis Colts +148 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears (60%) | Over 47 (50%) | Carolina Panthers +148 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals (65%) | Over 50 (51%) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +176 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions (74%) | Over 50 (50%) | Detroit Lions -325 (DraftKings) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas Raiders (60%) | Under 40.5 (51%) | Las Vegas Raiders -159 (BetRivers) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers (80%) | Over 47 (50%) | Arizona Cardinals +395 (BetUS) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles (69%) | Over 44 (50%) | Washington Commanders +220 (Bovada) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings (54%) | Over 46 (50%) | Minnesota Vikings -125 (BetUS) |
| 8:20 PM ET | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys (60%) | Over 48 (50%) | New York Giants +148 (BetOnline.ag) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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