MLB picks today for September 13, 2026: all 15 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Full MLB Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number | Starters | 1st inning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:11 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers (65%) | Over 9 (50%) FLIP | Colorado Rockies +136 (LowVig.ag) | Gabriel Hughes (5.81 ERA) v Jackson Jobe (4.45 ERA) | YRFI▲ (65%) |
| 1:36 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves (61%) | Under 9 (54%) FLIP | Philadelphia Phillies +119 (BetOnline.ag) | Andrew Painter (5.71 ERA) v Grant Holmes (3.46 ERA) | YRFI▲ (59%) |
| 1:36 PM ET | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | New York Yankees (67%) | Under 7.5 (53%) FLIP | New York Mets +160 (LowVig.ag) | Christian Scott (3.81 ERA) v Cam Schlittler (2.01 ERA) | NRFI▲ (68%) |
| 1:36 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals (57%) | Over 9 (54%) | Los Angeles Angels +107 (BetUS) | Grayson Rodriguez (6.28 ERA) v Jake Irvin (5.52 ERA) | YRFI▲ (71%) |
| 1:38 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays (58%) | Under 7.5 (52%) | Baltimore Orioles +136 (LowVig.ag) | Trevor Rogers (4.15 ERA) v Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA) | NRFI▲ (69%) |
| 1:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Dodgers (56%) | Under 8.5 (55%) | Miami Marlins +132 (BetRivers) | Emmet Sheehan (5.08 ERA) v Eury Pérez (3.94 ERA) | YRFI (53%) |
| 1:41 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays (57%) | Under 8 (51%) | Tampa Bay Rays -133 (BetOnline.ag) | Hayden Wesneski (3.35 ERA) v Freddy Peralta (4.82 ERA) | NRFI (55%) |
| 2:11 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers (68%) | Under 8 (50%) | Cincinnati Reds +173 (LowVig.ag) | Chase Burns (2.73 ERA) v Robert Gasser (4.43 ERA) | NRFI▲ (59%) |
| 2:11 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins (53%) | Over 7.5 (54%) | Cleveland Guardians +115 (BetUS) | TBD | — |
| 2:16 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago White Sox (51%) | Over 8 (52%) | St. Louis Cardinals +115 (BetUS) | TBD | — |
| 2:21 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs (60%) | Over 7 (61%) FLIP | Chicago Cubs -137 (BetRivers) | Bubba Chandler (4.25 ERA) v Matthew Boyd (4.03 ERA) | YRFI (53%) |
| 3:06 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox (66%) | Under 7.5 (50%) | Kansas City Royals +162 (LowVig.ag) | Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA) v Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA) | NRFI▲ (62%) |
| 4:06 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Seattle Mariners (56%) | Under 9.5 (56%) | Seattle Mariners -137 (BetRivers) | Bryce Miller (4.22 ERA) v Jacob Lopez (4.78 ERA) | YRFI (47%) |
| 4:11 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks (58%) | Under 8 (53%) FLIP | Arizona Diamondbacks -137 (BetOnline.ag) | Cal Quantrill (2.89 ERA) v Eduardo Rodriguez (2.55 ERA) | NRFI▲ (62%) |
| 7:21 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres (54%) | Over 7 (52%) | San Francisco Giants +114 (BetUS) | Nick Pivetta (3.43 ERA) v Logan Webb (4.10 ERA) | NRFI▲ (61%) |
Over / Under Board
- Over 7 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs: our number is 9.06, so we make it 61% to land over — against the posted total.
- Under 9.5 — Seattle Mariners @ Athletics: our number is 8.46, so we make it 56% to land under.
- Under 8.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins: our number is 7.76, so we make it 55% to land under.
- Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins: our number is 8.04, so we make it 54% to land over.
- Over 9 — Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals: our number is 9.58, so we make it 54% to land over.
- Under 9 — Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves: our number is 8.26, so we make it 54% to land under — against the posted total.
YRFI / NRFI Leans
- YRFI Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers — 65% chance of a first-inning run (Gabriel Hughes (5.81 ERA) vs Jackson Jobe (4.45 ERA))
- YRFI Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals — 71% chance of a first-inning run (Grayson Rodriguez (6.28 ERA) vs Jake Irvin (5.52 ERA))
- YRFI Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — 59% chance of a first-inning run (Andrew Painter (5.71 ERA) vs Grant Holmes (3.46 ERA))
- NRFI New York Mets @ New York Yankees — 68% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Christian Scott (3.81 ERA) vs Cam Schlittler (2.01 ERA))
- NRFI Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays — 69% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Trevor Rogers (4.15 ERA) vs Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA))
- NRFI Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays — 55% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Hayden Wesneski (3.35 ERA) vs Freddy Peralta (4.82 ERA))
- YRFI Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins — 53% chance of a first-inning run (Emmet Sheehan (5.08 ERA) vs Eury Pérez (3.94 ERA))
- NRFI Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers — 59% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Chase Burns (2.73 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.43 ERA))
- YRFI Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — 53% chance of a first-inning run (Bubba Chandler (4.25 ERA) vs Matthew Boyd (4.03 ERA))
- NRFI Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox — 62% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA) vs Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA))
- YRFI Seattle Mariners @ Athletics — 47% chance of a first-inning run (Bryce Miller (4.22 ERA) vs Jacob Lopez (4.78 ERA))
- NRFI Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks — 62% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Cal Quantrill (2.89 ERA) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.55 ERA))
- NRFI San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants — 61% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Nick Pivetta (3.43 ERA) vs Logan Webb (4.10 ERA))
New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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