MLB picks today for September 25, 2026: all 17 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
The math says no edge anywhere, so I’m going with feel: Cleveland is the slight favorite at -130, and I like laying a modest price on the side the market already trusts. Not a screaming spot, just the one I’d tail without losing sleep.
Full MLB Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number | Starters | 1st inning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:06 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox (50%) MODEL FLIP | Over 6.5 (59%) FLIP | Boston Red Sox +106 (BetUS) | David Peterson (4.96 ERA) v Brayan Bello (4.49 ERA) | YRFI▲ (63%) |
| 4:05 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | New York Yankees (58%) | Over 6.5 (62%) | Baltimore Orioles +119 (BetUS) | Trevor Rogers (4.07 ERA) v Brendan Beck (8.22 ERA) | YRFI▲ (62%) |
| 6:06 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox (51%) MODEL FLIP | Over 6.5 (59%) FLIP | Chicago Cubs -109 (LowVig.ag) | David Peterson (4.96 ERA) v Brayan Bello (4.49 ERA) | YRFI▲ (63%) |
| 6:41 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies (57%) | Over 6.5 (55%) | Tampa Bay Rays +151 (BetOnline.ag) | Freddy Peralta (4.56 ERA) v Cristopher Sánchez (2.93 ERA) | NRFI (55%) |
| 6:41 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers (55%) | Under 8 (54%) | Detroit Tigers -105 (BetOnline.ag) | Bubba Chandler (4.34 ERA) v Jackson Jobe (3.98 ERA) | YRFI (50%) |
| 6:46 PM ET | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals (52%) MODEL FLIP | Under 8 (50%) | New York Mets -132 (BetRivers) | TBD | — |
| 7:06 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | New York Yankees (58%) | Over 6.5 (61%) | Baltimore Orioles +128 (BetRivers) | Trevor Rogers (4.07 ERA) v Brendan Beck (8.22 ERA) | YRFI▲ (62%) |
| 7:08 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays (58%) | Under 7.5 (50%) FLIP | Cincinnati Reds +120 (FanDuel) | TBD | — |
| 7:11 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves (54%) | Under 8 (54%) FLIP | Atlanta Braves -122 (BetRivers) | TBD | — |
| 7:40 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox (69%) | Over 8 (55%) FLIP | Colorado Rockies +201 (LowVig.ag) | Tomoyuki Sugano (5.36 ERA) v Sean Burke (3.40 ERA) | YRFI▲ (56%) |
| 7:41 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians (55%) | Under 7 (50%) FLIP | Cleveland Guardians -130 (BetRivers) | Gavin Williams (3.63 ERA) v Noah Cameron (3.92 ERA) | NRFI▲ (61%) |
| 7:41 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers (65%) | Under 8 (52%) | St. Louis Cardinals +158 (LowVig.ag) | Michael McGreevy (3.84 ERA) v Robert Gasser (4.01 ERA) | NRFI (54%) |
| 8:11 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins (51%) MODEL FLIP | Over 7 (52%) | Texas Rangers -106 (BetRivers) | Jacob deGrom (3.86 ERA) v Joe Ryan (3.83 ERA) | NRFI (53%) |
| 9:41 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Athletics | Houston Astros (61%) | Under 9 (54%) | Athletics +154 (BetOnline.ag) | Hunter Brown (3.26 ERA) v Jacob Lopez (5.68 ERA) | NRFI (53%) |
| 9:41 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres (56%) | Under 7.5 (51%) FLIP | San Diego Padres -132 (LowVig.ag) | TBD | — |
| 10:11 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners (55%) | Over 6.5 (51%) | Los Angeles Angels +119 (BetUS) | Reid Detmers (3.47 ERA) v Bryce Miller (3.99 ERA) | NRFI▲ (63%) |
| 10:16 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers (71%) | Under 7.5 (54%) | San Francisco Giants +310 (LowVig.ag) | Tarik Skubal (2.85 ERA) v Yunior Marte (4.66 ERA) | NRFI▲ (58%) |
Over / Under Board
- Over 6.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees: our number is 8.6, so we make it 62% to land over.
- Over 6.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees: our number is 8.6, so we make it 61% to land over.
- Over 6.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox: our number is 8.29, so we make it 59% to land over — against the posted total.
- Over 6.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox: our number is 8.29, so we make it 59% to land over — against the posted total.
- Over 8 — Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox: our number is 8.89, so we make it 55% to land over — against the posted total.
- Over 6.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies: our number is 7.24, so we make it 55% to land over.
YRFI / NRFI Leans
- YRFI Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox — 63% chance of a first-inning run (David Peterson (4.96 ERA) vs Brayan Bello (4.49 ERA))
- YRFI Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees — 62% chance of a first-inning run (Trevor Rogers (4.07 ERA) vs Brendan Beck (8.22 ERA))
- YRFI Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers — 50% chance of a first-inning run (Bubba Chandler (4.34 ERA) vs Jackson Jobe (3.98 ERA))
- NRFI Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies — 55% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Freddy Peralta (4.56 ERA) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.93 ERA))
- NRFI Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals — 61% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Gavin Williams (3.63 ERA) vs Noah Cameron (3.92 ERA))
- YRFI Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox — 56% chance of a first-inning run (Tomoyuki Sugano (5.36 ERA) vs Sean Burke (3.40 ERA))
- NRFI St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers — 54% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Michael McGreevy (3.84 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.01 ERA))
- NRFI Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins — 53% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Jacob deGrom (3.86 ERA) vs Joe Ryan (3.83 ERA))
- NRFI Houston Astros @ Athletics — 53% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Hunter Brown (3.26 ERA) vs Jacob Lopez (5.68 ERA))
- NRFI Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners — 63% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Reid Detmers (3.47 ERA) vs Bryce Miller (3.99 ERA))
- NRFI Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants — 58% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Tarik Skubal (2.85 ERA) vs Yunior Marte (4.66 ERA))
New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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