MLB Picks Today (September 26, 2026): 13 Games, Value Leans & Best Lines

MLB picks today for September 26, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.

BetMan’s Gut Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants

The math says no edge here, but I like a home dog at +275 with a real puncher’s chance, and you only need it to hit about one time in four to break even. It’s a swing at a fat price, not a lock, so size it like the long shot it is.

Gut, not gospel — the value board is the math.

Full MLB Slate

Over / Under Board

• Over 8 — Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox: our number is 9.58, so we make it 59% to land over.
• Under 7.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants: our number is 6.32, so we make it 57% to land under.
• Over 8.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers: our number is 9.57, so we make it 57% to land over.
• Under 8.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins: our number is 7.14, so we make it 57% to land under — against the posted total.
• Under 8.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals: our number is 7.52, so we make it 56% to land under.
• Over 7.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers: our number is 8, so we make it 53% to land over.

YRFI / NRFI Leans

BetMan’s First-Inning Call

YRFI — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

Verlander’s 12.27 ERA is the loudest number on the board, and the model backs it with its only strong YRFI read at 60%. Yates is solid at 3.32, but all it takes is one Pirates hitter getting to a shaky Verlander early, and I’m riding it.

One call with a little feel behind it — the full board below is the math.

• NRFI New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — 53% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Jonah Tong (4.21 ERA) vs Connelly Early (3.44 ERA))
• YRFI Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers — 76% chance of a first-inning run (Kirby Yates (3.32 ERA) vs Justin Verlander (12.27 ERA))
• YRFI Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays — 52% chance of a first-inning run (Rhett Lowder (6.01 ERA) vs Trey Yesavage (3.67 ERA))
• NRFI Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants — 73% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Blake Snell (1.86 ERA) vs Matt Wilkinson (3.65 ERA))
• NRFI Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins — 51% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Nathan Eovaldi (4.27 ERA) vs Bailey Ober (4.21 ERA))
• NRFI Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins — 54% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Brent Suter (3.48 ERA) vs Jack Ralston (4.50 ERA))
• NRFI Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals — 56% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Tanner Bibee (4.35 ERA) vs Michael Wacha (3.33 ERA))
• YRFI Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox — 61% chance of a first-inning run (Jose Quintana (5.40 ERA) vs Davis Martin (3.84 ERA))
• YRFI St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers — 52% chance of a first-inning run (Quinn Mathews (3.65 ERA) vs Dustin May (4.67 ERA))
• YRFI Houston Astros @ Athletics — 57% chance of a first-inning run (Hayden Wesneski (3.50 ERA) vs Jack Perkins (5.90 ERA))
• YRFI Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners — 51% chance of a first-inning run (Ryan Johnson (4.93 ERA) vs Kade Anderson (4.18 ERA))

New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.

How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.