NFL picks today for September 26, 2026: all 12 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. We flag 1 game with real line value today.
Table of Contents
Value Board
Arizona at +350 implies a break-even probability of about 22.2%, and our no-vig fair number for the Cardinals is 22%, so the +3.2% edge reflects how the DraftKings price compares with our model’s read rather than a large gap in the market. To be clear, the edge is on the price, not a prediction that Arizona wins: this is still a heavy underdog that should lose most of the time, and a single result says little about whether the price was good. Big road underdogs like this tend to carry high variance, so smaller sizing and comparing the number across books before acting are sensible.
Full NFL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM ET | Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers VALUE | San Francisco 49ers (77%) | Over 48 (50%) | Arizona Cardinals +350 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills (74%) | Over 50 (50%) | Los Angeles Chargers +295 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks (76%) | Over 40 (51%) | Washington Commanders +310 (DraftKings) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns | Carolina Panthers (56%) | Over 42.5 (50%) | Carolina Panthers -130 (Bovada) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions (72%) | Over 48 (51%) | New York Jets +255 (BetRivers) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals (62%) | Over 42.5 (50%) | Pittsburgh Steelers +160 (BetRivers) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans (53%) | Over 42.5 (50%) | Indianapolis Colts +110 (FanDuel) |
| 1:00 PM ET | New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars (58%) | Over 46 (50%) | New England Patriots +135 (LowVig.ag) |
| 1:00 PM ET | Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants | New York Giants (56%) | Over 38 (50%) | New York Giants -135 (DraftKings) |
| 4:05 PM ET | Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings (52%) | Over 42.5 (50%) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +106 (FanDuel) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens (62%) | Over 53.5 (50%) | Baltimore Ravens -166 (DraftKings) |
| 4:25 PM ET | Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints (62%) | Over 43.5 (51%) | New Orleans Saints -173 (MyBookie.ag) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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