MLB picks today for September 2, 2026: all 15 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Yankees on the road against the Angels is about as clean a spot as you’ll find on this slate, and I’m not overthinking it. Lay the price and move on with your day.
Full MLB Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Best number | Starters | 1st inning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:41 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | San Diego Padres (56%) | Cincinnati Reds +131 (BetOnline.ag) | Casey Mize (3.45 ERA) v Brandon Williamson (6.11 ERA) | NRFI (52%) |
| 1:06 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves (56%) | Washington Nationals +139 (LowVig.ag) | Grant Holmes (3.71 ERA) v Brad Lord (3.75 ERA) | YRFI (61%) |
| 2:36 PM ET | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers (62%) | Texas Rangers -148 (BetRivers) | Jacob Lopez (4.82 ERA) v Cody Bradford (3.42 ERA) | YRFI (59%) |
| 3:11 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Baltimore Orioles (56%) | Colorado Rockies +143 (BetOnline.ag) | Trevor Rogers (4.38 ERA) v Tomoyuki Sugano (5.23 ERA) | YRFI▲ (64%) |
| 3:41 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Philadelphia Phillies (50%) | Arizona Diamondbacks +103 (LowVig.ag) | Andrew Painter (5.95 ERA) v Taylor Clarke (2.60 ERA) | YRFI▲ (70%) |
| 4:11 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox (62%) | Seattle Mariners +121 (BetOnline.ag) | Bryce Miller (4.12 ERA) v Patrick Sandoval (4.20 ERA) | YRFI (56%) |
| 6:41 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates (60%) | San Francisco Giants +143 (BetRivers) | Landen Roupp (4.25 ERA) v Bubba Chandler (4.26 ERA) | YRFI (59%) |
| 6:41 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians (54%) MODEL FLIP | Cleveland Guardians +114 (FanDuel) | Dylan Cease (2.33 ERA) v Joey Cantillo (3.70 ERA) | YRFI (55%) |
| 6:41 PM ET | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays (61%) | New York Mets +143 (LowVig.ag) | Justin Hagenman v Griffin Jax (3.63 ERA) | YRFI (56%) |
| 7:41 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers (50%) MODEL FLIP | Detroit Tigers +104 (LowVig.ag) | Drew Anderson (3.87 ERA) v Dean Kremer (5.60 ERA) | YRFI▲ (68%) |
| 7:41 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Miami Marlins (52%) MODEL FLIP | Kansas City Royals -107 (LowVig.ag) | Eury Pérez (3.44 ERA) v Noah Cameron (3.98 ERA) | YRFI (55%) |
| 7:41 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers (53%) | Chicago Cubs +138 (BetRivers) | Jacob Misiorowski (1.73 ERA) v David Peterson (5.11 ERA) | YRFI (58%) |
| 8:11 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Houston Astros (51%) | Houston Astros -132 (MyBookie.ag) | Davis Martin (4.32 ERA) v Hayden Wesneski (3.86 ERA) | YRFI▲ (69%) |
| 9:39 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | New York Yankees (60%) | New York Yankees -159 (BetRivers) | Cam Schlittler (2.09 ERA) v Reid Detmers (3.54 ERA) | YRFI (60%) |
| 10:11 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers (67%) | Los Angeles Dodgers -250 (FanDuel) | TBD | — |
YRFI / NRFI Leans
- NRFI San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds — 52% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Casey Mize (3.45 ERA) vs Brandon Williamson (6.11 ERA))
- YRFI Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals — 61% chance of a first-inning run (Grant Holmes (3.71 ERA) vs Brad Lord (3.75 ERA))
- YRFI Athletics @ Texas Rangers — 59% chance of a first-inning run (Jacob Lopez (4.82 ERA) vs Cody Bradford (3.42 ERA))
- YRFI Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies — 64% chance of a first-inning run (Trevor Rogers (4.38 ERA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.23 ERA))
- YRFI Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — 70% chance of a first-inning run (Andrew Painter (5.95 ERA) vs Taylor Clarke (2.60 ERA))
- YRFI Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox — 56% chance of a first-inning run (Bryce Miller (4.12 ERA) vs Patrick Sandoval (4.20 ERA))
- YRFI San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates — 59% chance of a first-inning run (Landen Roupp (4.25 ERA) vs Bubba Chandler (4.26 ERA))
- YRFI New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays — 56% chance of a first-inning run (Justin Hagenman vs Griffin Jax (3.63 ERA))
- YRFI Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians — 55% chance of a first-inning run (Dylan Cease (2.33 ERA) vs Joey Cantillo (3.70 ERA))
- YRFI Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins — 68% chance of a first-inning run (Drew Anderson (3.87 ERA) vs Dean Kremer (5.60 ERA))
- YRFI Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals — 55% chance of a first-inning run (Eury Pérez (3.44 ERA) vs Noah Cameron (3.98 ERA))
- YRFI Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs — 58% chance of a first-inning run (Jacob Misiorowski (1.73 ERA) vs David Peterson (5.11 ERA))
- YRFI Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros — 69% chance of a first-inning run (Davis Martin (4.32 ERA) vs Hayden Wesneski (3.86 ERA))
- YRFI New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels — 60% chance of a first-inning run (Cam Schlittler (2.09 ERA) vs Reid Detmers (3.54 ERA))
New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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