MLB Picks Today (September 23, 2026): 16 Games, Value Leans & Best Lines

MLB picks today for September 23, 2026: all 16 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.

BetMan’s Gut Pick

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals

This is basically a coin flip and Kansas City’s catching plus money for it at home, that’s free value sitting on the table. I’ll take the near even-money dog every time in a spot this tight.

Gut, not gospel — the value board is the math.

Full MLB Slate

Over / Under Board

• Over 6.5 — Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs: our number is 8.46, so we make it 61% to land over.
• Under 9.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics: our number is 8.26, so we make it 57% to land under.
• Under 8.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles: our number is 7.46, so we make it 57% to land under.
• Under 8 — San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers: our number is 6.71, so we make it 56% to land under — against the posted total.
• Over 7.5 — Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers: our number is 8.24, so we make it 55% to land over.
• Under 11 — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies: our number is 10.27, so we make it 54% to land under — against the posted total.

YRFI / NRFI Leans

BetMan’s First-Inning Call

YRFI — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Highest number on the board and the starters back it up, Kelly and Adams are both scuffling with ERAs over 5 and this is Coors Field to boot. Give me a first inning run here, no thinking required.

One call with a little feel behind it — the full board below is the math.

• YRFI Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers — 60% chance of a first-inning run (Richard Lovelady (3.86 ERA) vs Framber Valdez (4.06 ERA))
• YRFI Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants — 56% chance of a first-inning run (Connor Prielipp (4.94 ERA) vs Cesar Perdomo (3.72 ERA))
• YRFI St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — 52% chance of a first-inning run (Matthew Liberatore (5.36 ERA) vs Lake Bachar (3.56 ERA))
• NRFI Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — 63% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Logan Henderson (2.51 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA))
• NRFI Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — 60% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Ian Seymour (4.38 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (3.63 ERA))
• NRFI Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox — 59% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Foster Griffin (3.67 ERA) vs Sonny Gray (2.82 ERA))
• NRFI Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves — 58% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Andrew Abbott (4.70 ERA) vs Chris Sale (2.18 ERA))
• YRFI Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals — 57% chance of a first-inning run (Bryan Hudson (3.03 ERA) vs Seth Lugo (5.06 ERA))
• YRFI Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs — 55% chance of a first-inning run (Ryan Gusto (4.14 ERA) vs Kevin Gausman (4.55 ERA))
• YRFI Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies — 64% chance of a first-inning run (Merrill Kelly (5.00 ERA) vs Mason Adams (5.09 ERA))
• YRFI Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics — 53% chance of a first-inning run (Walbert Ureña (2.74 ERA) vs Jeffrey Springs (6.18 ERA))
• NRFI San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers — 64% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Robbie Ray (3.60 ERA) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.51 ERA))
• YRFI Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners — 53% chance of a first-inning run (Ethan Pecko (3.77 ERA) vs George Kirby (4.24 ERA))

New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.

How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.