MLB picks today for September 7, 2026: all 11 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books — plus first-inning YRFI/NRFI leans for every matchup with confirmed starters. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
This is basically a coin flip and I’m getting paid plus money to pick a side, that’s free value sitting on the table. Give me the live dog in a pick’em every time.
Full MLB Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number | Starters | 1st inning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:06 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies (53%) | Under 8 (51%) FLIP | Atlanta Braves +146 (FanDuel) | Grant Holmes (3.62 ERA) v Jesús Luzardo (3.02 ERA) | NRFI▲ (63%) |
| 1:11 PM ET | New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins (56%) | Under 8 (51%) | New York Mets +106 (BetOnline.ag) | Jonah Tong (3.60 ERA) v Eury Pérez (3.72 ERA) | NRFI (51%) |
| 1:36 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles (53%) | Over 7.5 (53%) FLIP | Cleveland Guardians +112 (BetOnline.ag) | Joey Cantillo (3.81 ERA) v Trevor Rogers (4.30 ERA) | NRFI (54%) |
| 1:36 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox (64%) | Under 8.5 (54%) | Los Angeles Angels +154 (LowVig.ag) | TBD | — |
| 2:11 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers (55%) | Over 8.5 (53%) FLIP | Chicago Cubs +111 (LowVig.ag) | Matthew Boyd (4.05 ERA) v Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA) | YRFI (54%) |
| 2:11 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Arizona Diamondbacks (51%) MODEL FLIP | Under 9 (52%) FLIP | Arizona Diamondbacks +102 (BetUS) | TBD | — |
| 3:11 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers (58%) | Under 8.5 (50%) | Detroit Tigers -121 (BetRivers) | TBD | — |
| 5:11 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres (59%) | Over 8 (54%) | Washington Nationals +180 (BetRivers) | Jake Irvin (5.57 ERA) v Nick Pivetta (4.50 ERA) | YRFI▲ (58%) |
| 8:11 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants (51%) | Over 7.5 (56%) | San Francisco Giants -126 (BetOnline.ag) | Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA) v Logan Webb (4.21 ERA) | NRFI (51%) |
| 9:11 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers (66%) | Under 8.5 (50%) | Los Angeles Dodgers -147 (BetUS) | TBD | — |
| 10:06 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Toronto Blue Jays (63%) | Under 8.5 (54%) | Athletics +180 (LowVig.ag) | Dylan Cease (2.25 ERA) v Jacob Lopez (4.71 ERA) | NRFI▲ (64%) |
Over / Under Board
- Over 7.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants: our number is 8.47, so we make it 56% to land over.
- Under 8.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox: our number is 7.97, so we make it 54% to land under.
- Over 8 — Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres: our number is 8.66, so we make it 54% to land over.
- Under 8.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics: our number is 7.97, so we make it 54% to land under.
- Over 7.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles: our number is 8.29, so we make it 53% to land over — against the posted total.
- Over 8.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers: our number is 9.13, so we make it 53% to land over — against the posted total.
YRFI / NRFI Leans
Cease is running a 2.25 ERA and that kind of stuff shuts a lineup down early, lining up perfectly with the model’s strong 64% NRFI lean. Riding the model here, no reason to fight an ace.
- NRFI Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies — 63% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Grant Holmes (3.62 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.02 ERA))
- NRFI New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — 51% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Jonah Tong (3.60 ERA) vs Eury Pérez (3.72 ERA))
- NRFI Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles — 54% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Joey Cantillo (3.81 ERA) vs Trevor Rogers (4.30 ERA))
- YRFI Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers — 54% chance of a first-inning run (Matthew Boyd (4.05 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA))
- YRFI Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — 58% chance of a first-inning run (Jake Irvin (5.57 ERA) vs Nick Pivetta (4.50 ERA))
- NRFI St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants — 51% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA) vs Logan Webb (4.21 ERA))
- NRFI Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics — 64% chance the first inning stays scoreless (Dylan Cease (2.25 ERA) vs Jacob Lopez (4.71 ERA))
New to first-inning markets? Start with our guide: NRFI and YRFI, explained.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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