MLS picks today for September 9, 2026: all 13 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Full MLS Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 PM ET | Columbus Crew SC @ D.C. United | D.C. United (54%) | Over 2.5 (55%) | Columbus Crew SC +172 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Nashville SC @ Toronto FC | Nashville SC (68%) | Under 3 (55%) | Toronto FC +210 (FanDuel) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Orlando City SC @ Atlanta United FC | Atlanta United FC (58%) | Over 3 (53%) | Orlando City SC +210 (BetRivers) |
| 7:30 PM ET | Charlotte FC @ CF Montreal | Charlotte FC (56%) MODEL FLIP | Under 3 (51%) FLIP | Charlotte FC +180 (FanDuel) |
| 7:45 PM ET | FC Cincinnati @ Philadelphia Union | Philadelphia Union (64%) | Over 3.5 (51%) | FC Cincinnati +345 (BetUS) |
| 8:00 PM ET | New England Revolution @ New York City FC | New York City FC (55%) | Under 3 (58%) | New England Revolution +185 (LowVig.ag) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Colorado Rapids @ Austin FC | Colorado Rapids (50%) MODEL FLIP | Over 2.5 (51%) | Austin FC +159 (BetOnline.ag) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Real Salt Lake @ Houston Dynamo | Houston Dynamo (64%) | Over 2.5 (52%) | Real Salt Lake +270 (FanDuel) |
| 8:30 PM ET | FC Dallas @ Minnesota United FC | Minnesota United FC (58%) | Over 3 (50%) | Minnesota United FC +102 (BetRivers) |
| 8:30 PM ET | Inter Miami CF @ Chicago Fire | Chicago Fire (58%) | Over 3.5 (53%) | Inter Miami CF +182 (BetUS) |
| 10:30 PM ET | St. Louis City SC @ Portland Timbers | Portland Timbers (54%) | Over 3 (52%) | St. Louis City SC +180 (BetRivers) |
| 10:30 PM ET | San Jose Earthquakes @ San Diego FC | San Diego FC (64%) | Under 3.5 (59%) | San Jose Earthquakes +320 (BetUS) |
| 10:30 PM ET | New York Red Bulls @ Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles FC (79%) | Under 3.5 (56%) FLIP | Los Angeles FC -235 (BetMGM) |
Over / Under Board
- Under 3.5 — San Jose Earthquakes @ San Diego FC: our number is 2.87, so we make it 59% to land under.
- Under 3 — New England Revolution @ New York City FC: our number is 2.54, so we make it 58% to land under.
- Under 3.5 — New York Red Bulls @ Los Angeles FC: our number is 3.05, so we make it 56% to land under — against the posted total.
- Under 3 — Nashville SC @ Toronto FC: our number is 2.74, so we make it 55% to land under.
- Over 2.5 — Columbus Crew SC @ D.C. United: our number is 2.69, so we make it 55% to land over.
- Over 3 — Orlando City SC @ Atlanta United FC: our number is 3.11, so we make it 53% to land over.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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