NHL picks today for October 17, 2026: all 14 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Table of Contents
Full NHL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals | Washington Capitals (57%) | Over 6 (54%) | Washington Capitals -119 (LowVig.ag) |
| 3:40 PM ET | Carolina Hurricanes @ Winnipeg Jets | Carolina Hurricanes (67%) | Over 6 (50%) | Winnipeg Jets +157 (LowVig.ag) |
| 4:10 PM ET | Vancouver Canucks @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Tampa Bay Lightning (78%) | Under 6.5 (50%) | Vancouver Canucks +350 (BetRivers) |
| 6:10 PM ET | Seattle Kraken @ Florida Panthers | Seattle Kraken (52%) MODEL FLIP | Over 6 (50%) | Seattle Kraken +164 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:10 PM ET | Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks | Dallas Stars (71%) | Under 6 (57%) | Chicago Blackhawks +172 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:10 PM ET | Buffalo Sabres @ Montréal Canadiens | Montréal Canadiens (57%) | Over 6.5 (52%) | Buffalo Sabres +125 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Jose Sharks @ Detroit Red Wings | Detroit Red Wings (55%) | Under 6.5 (59%) | Detroit Red Wings -128 (FanDuel) |
| 7:10 PM ET | Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers | Ottawa Senators (79%) | Under 5.5 (55%) | Philadelphia Flyers +133 (LowVig.ag) |
| 7:10 PM ET | New York Rangers @ Columbus Blue Jackets | New York Rangers (62%) MODEL FLIP | Under 6.5 (54%) | Columbus Blue Jackets -130 (BetMGM) |
| 7:10 PM ET | New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Islanders (50%) MODEL FLIP | Over 6 (50%) | New York Islanders +115 (LowVig.ag) |
| 8:10 PM ET | St Louis Blues @ Nashville Predators | St Louis Blues (56%) | Over 6 (51%) | Nashville Predators -101 (LowVig.ag) |
| 9:10 PM ET | Boston Bruins @ Los Angeles Kings | Boston Bruins (72%) MODEL FLIP | Over 5.5 (56%) | Boston Bruins +120 (BetRivers) |
| 10:10 PM ET | Pittsburgh Penguins @ Vegas Golden Knights | Vegas Golden Knights (73%) | Over 6.5 (50%) | Pittsburgh Penguins +200 (BetRivers) |
| 10:10 PM ET | Edmonton Oilers @ Utah Mammoth | Utah Mammoth (56%) | Over 6.5 (54%) | Edmonton Oilers +115 (LowVig.ag) |
Over / Under Board
- Under 6.5 — San Jose Sharks @ Detroit Red Wings: our number is 5.6, so we make it 59% to land under.
- Under 6 — Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks: our number is 5.2, so we make it 57% to land under.
- Over 5.5 — Boston Bruins @ Los Angeles Kings: our number is 6.01, so we make it 56% to land over.
- Under 5.5 — Ottawa Senators @ Philadelphia Flyers: our number is 4.94, so we make it 55% to land under.
- Over 6 — New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals: our number is 6.38, so we make it 54% to land over.
- Over 6.5 — Edmonton Oilers @ Utah Mammoth: our number is 6.85, so we make it 54% to land over.
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
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