NHL picks today for October 5, 2026: all 4 games on the board with a straight winner pick on each, plus the best number we could find across the major books. No standout value on today’s board — the market is pricing these tight, so shop the reference numbers below.
Full NHL Slate
| Time | Matchup | Pick | Total | Best number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:10 PM ET | Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Tampa Bay Lightning (66%) | Over 5.5 (54%) | Philadelphia Flyers +188 (BetRivers) |
| 7:40 PM ET | Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Pittsburgh Penguins (62%) | Under 6.5 (52%) | Winnipeg Jets +155 (BetRivers) |
| 7:40 PM ET | Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins | Ottawa Senators (52%) | Over 5.5 (53%) | Boston Bruins +104 (LowVig.ag) |
| 8:10 PM ET | San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars | Dallas Stars (61%) | Under 6.5 (52%) | Dallas Stars -165 (BetUS) |
How we read these boards: how to read a matchup.
The Pick comes from our power ratings — season scoring differential, strength-adjusted matchup math, and home edge — blended with the market’s no-vig fair price; the number shown is that blend’s win probability. The Total is built the same way: we estimate each side’s scoring from what these teams score and concede (for baseball, adjusted for the listed starters and the ballpark), recentre that estimate against the day’s posted numbers so a modelling bias can’t tilt the whole board, and compare it to the line. A MODEL FLIP means our ratings like the side the market has as the underdog. A “VALUE” tag is a different thing: it means the best available number beats the fair price by 3–12% (sometimes that value sits on the side we don’t pick to win — a good price and a likely winner aren’t always the same bet). These are leans, not locks — decision support for bets you were already considering, on whatever book or market you use. Lines move; check the current number before you do anything.
21+. Please play responsibly. If it stops being fun: 1-800-GAMBLER. Get this board by email every morning — the BetSlate Briefing.